People loved newspapers. Advertisement The internet takes it to another dimension. Someone can promote their views widely without getting buy-in from editors or other gatekeepers? Maybe it will come back. You have news media that have developed their reputation for honesty and integrity. Those are the extreme, crazy forms of the narrative. This is another narrative. These are the stories that drive the bubble.
He also legitimizes wealth. The Trump story helps inflate all kinds of bubbles, not just bitcoin. I think there are aspects of a housing bubble, and a stock market bubble right now. Are your feelings on the stock market based on the CAPE ratio? I have another indicator you can find on my website that not many people pay attention to. Advertisement I have something I call a valuation confidence index.
Maybe I should expand my size. In other words, people think the market is highly valued. People think it. I know that. Both individual and institutional investors. We are in a time of mistrust of the market. The only time mistrust of the market was lower since was in So around , the peak of the dot-com bubble. It seems like the mindset is somewhat similar to the dot-com mindset. High-tech companies are probably more exciting, as they were in The year was kind of like That was the gold rush.
It really created a viral explosion of men going out west in looking for gold. You have to do it now! It was the same thing in or thereabouts, when stories of some internet companies were coming out and people said, you know, this is the future, these guys are going to take over.
And they got ahead of themselves with the dot-com bubble. Is low volatility a bubble, of sorts? Well volatility is very low, both actual and projected in the VIX. So, why is that? I tend to think of it as something that reflects the quality of the narrative, which is not encouraging a lot of trading activity now. One thing I emphasized in my book Irrational Exuberance is attention is capricious. We all focus our attention in the same way.
But part of the story has to be what Donald J. Trump said about it. Somehow the attention is elsewhere than day-to-day motions of the stock market. It could suddenly change. Advertisement I remember in October That was the biggest one-day stock market drop ever.
How did I hear about it? I was teaching my lecture in the morning. Relatively rapid real income growth is of course not a problem. Falling nominal prices with flat nominal wages were how workers enjoyed higher levels of real income. Deflation a decline in overall nominal prices under the classical gold standard was not normally associated with other economic problems like depression normally defined as a decline in overall real income.
US real GDP in was Deflation characterized half the decade, —88, with the GDP deflator of almost 3 percent below that of for an annualized compound inflation rate of negative 0. Thus, only three years of the s exhibited both deflation and declining real income. These sharp deflations were not due to the uninterrupted working of the gold standard, which operates gradually, but followed from the high inflations that the Federal Reserve and European central banks off the gold standard had created during the First World War, given their refusal to devalue afterward, as persuasively argued by Mazumdar and Wood More importantly, the coincidence of depression with deflation was not typical of the classical gold standard.
Atkeson and Kehoe considered the facts of the matter in a panel of 17 nations over years. Overall, the data show virtually no link between deflation and depression. Shiller blurs some other details that would undermine his story of a parallelism between the bimetallic and Bitcoin eras.
He likens p. Trump in the US presidential election, both in their sympathies and in the contempt that many intellectuals held for them. Redeeming notes was the obligation only of the issuing banks. To be fair, although Parliament did not exchange Bank of England notes for gold coins, it did pass a law to make the notes themselves legal tender during the suspension period of — The standard model came about from gold monometallism plus the development of trustworthy commercial banknotes that displaced subsidiary coins.
In the United States as well, both before and after the Civil War, most currency notes were privately issued and the government did not exchange them for legal tender.
Learn about our editorial policies Updated June 25, Add Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller to the list of people who are skeptical about bitcoin.
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