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Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another. The Forex, or foreign currency exchange, is all about money. Money from all over the world is bought, sold and traded. On the Forex, anyone can buy and sell currency and with possibly come out ahead in the end.
When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to buy the currency of one country, sell it and make a profit. For example, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, then sell the yens and buy back American dollars for a profit. One of the best known and least understood theories of technical analysis in forex trading is the Elliot Wave Theory.
Developed in the s by Ralph Nelson Elliot as a method of predicting trends in the stock market, the Elliot Wave theory applies fractal mathematics to movements in the market to make predictions based on crowd behavior. But if it were that simple, everyone would be making a killing by catching the wave and riding it until just before it crashes on the shore.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it. A single In fact, the theories of fractal mathematics makes it clear that there are multiple waves within waves within waves. Elliot Wave Basics Every action is followed by a reaction. It's a standard rule of physics that applies to the crowd behavior on which the Elliot Wave theory is based. If prices drop, people will buy. The best way to get a fist-fight going among otherwise sane and reasonable people is to dismiss Elliott Wave ideas as silly.
It is obvious from most charts of long enough duration that prices do indeed exhibit a wave-like pattern. See the next image, for example. Five upward thrusts are clearly visible, with accompanying corrections. Not so in this case. Despite the Elliot Wave never having been proved, a very high number of traders continue to have faith in it and to act on those beliefs. Beginning traders need to decide whether they want to spend the time and effort to learn the rules of a failed hypothesis.
Common sense indicates you would not, and yet Elliott Wave and its key component, Fibonacci numbers , so pervade the Forex market that we can sometimes correctly predict self-fulfilling prophecies, just like when a support line is broken. If a majority or near-majority of key market participants have a religious faith in an outcome, they can force it to occur. Learning at least a few of the Elliott Wave basics is therefore a form of trading management self-defense.
There are three upward thrusts punctuated by two intermediate corrections, and after the highest high, the ultimate correction also goes in waves — three of them, two down and one up in the middle. The complete Elliott Wave sequence is a total of eight waves. After the first impulse wave up, the next wave is corrective downward. After the corrective wave, a second burst of energy carries the price upward in a second impulse wave, again followed by a correction that does not go as far as the previous correction low.
Then, a third upward wave ensues, and folklore has it that this third wave is the final and often the biggest of the waves. After the third upwave, almost anything can happen including a fourth or fifth upwave or a total collapse, but the Elliott Wave analyst exits as close to the top of the third upwave as possible. See the next chart. Far more complicated and difficult are the corrective waves.
These have their own structure of mini-waves and are assigned letters instead of numbers. The first down wave is a, followed by a mini-correction of the correction back in the direction of the original upthrust, labeled b, and then a third downmove, labeled c. To complicate matters, some analysts make the first set of letters upper-case and the second set in lower case, and mini-moves within the lettered move are labeled with Roman numerals.
The final chart shows what happens after the events depicted on the previous one.
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A Simplified Approach To Elliot Wave Analysis Ron Wheeler
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