As such, you can bet in the opposite direction and reap the benefit of extra points in your favor on the point spread or extra pennies on the dollar with the moneyline. To fade the public you need to pay close attention to line movements. There are also free resources online that can tell you the distribution of action on specific bets. This is because those leagues use a playoff format when it comes to home and away games.
The higher seeded team plays at home for the first two games, as well as the 5th and 7th, if necessary. The zig zag theory works on two main concepts. First, home teams have a real advantage. Second, when a team is coming off a loss they generally play harder and have a statistically better chance of winning. The zig zag theory works best when a team is at home AND coming off a loss.
In the NHL the historical percentages are different and even when the home team takes game 1, the lower seed comes back to win game 2 on the road one-third of the time. In these moments, with the public betting heavily on the home team to replicate their game 1 success, look to find great value on the road squad. If the leading team has won by close margins the public may still overvalue them by emphasizing the series lead rather than a rational analysis of how the games actually played out.
Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Martingale System — In this system the bettor simply doubles the bet amount after any losing bet in an effort to recoup their money plus a small profit. An obvious problem with this is that any bad losing streak will require a huge amount of money just to get back to even. The Negative Progression System a.
Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses. The Labouchere system — a. The Cancellation System — This system is also called the split Martingale system. First come up with a base betting unit. Then write down a common Labouchere sequence like To choose your bet amount, take the first and last numbers from the sequence.
If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence. When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence. Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out. The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that.
Using Sports Databases and Stats Sites to Discover Trends One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software. These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee.
It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results. Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors.
You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline. It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets. For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents. Check out our best NFL picks against the spread to get an advantage over the sportsbooks.
That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss. That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities. One advanced strategy punters use at the start of a new NFL season is the Pythagorean wins strategy, which is a name you might remember from math class in school.
It takes into account the amount of points scored by a team and compares it to the number of points scored against them. Amazingly, from to the Super Bowl was won 11 out of 16 times by the team that had the highest Pythagorean wins stat, not just the most outright victories. Instead of doing the math yourself, you can find the stats for all teams posted at the beginning of the season.
You can also find free calculators online that will do the math for you. This is just one example of a more advanced strategy used to wager on the NFL. NBA Betting Strategy In basketball, one advanced strategy we really like is going against the grain and betting against the public.
This works especially well with point totals and teams that put up big numbers at home. The common bettor will remember how a team performs at home, how quick their pace of play is, how many points they give up to the opposition, and then simply bet the same way the next time that team plays at home.
This means you can often get a great price betting the underdog or the under on totals in these spots. This works especially well when both teams have had busy workloads or are on the tail end of a back-to-back. Fading the Public Fading the public is the exact opposite of chasing steam.
Instead of following your betting peers, you are actually betting against them. In this case, when you see lines and odds moving sharply, you bet against the trend. Here, the idea is that the public is actually wrong. This strategy works best in highly publicized events or major competitions. While lines are often moved by educated punters, they can just as well be moved by casuals, i. It can be hard to know when to follow the public, but in general, the public looks for hyped events and hyped athletes to bet on.
People are more likely to bet on the team or athlete they know and love than to bet on unknown athletes or smaller teams. Of course, athletes get famous from past achievements; however, past achievements do not always reflect current from.
For example, a famous tennis player comes back after an injury and is matched up with an up-and-coming talent. Looking for outliers Looking for outliers is a very common sense betting strategy. Outliers are odds that go against the trend.
In order to find the best value, you simply look for the best odds for your bet. This involves comparing different bookies, so it is best to have multiple accounts. This idea of finding the best odds for your bet is simple, but it can be a full betting strategy. Some punters have a strategy of consistently betting on outliers, regardless of the event and their knowledge of it. The reasoning behind this is that the market is usually right. Odds tend to follow the money. The money usually comes from smart and professional punters.
By finding outliers, you can consistently find value bets. Backing Heavy Favourites Backing heavy favourites is one of the most basic sports betting strategies. It essentially requires no real skill. Favourites are favourites for a reason. In some sports, such as Tennis or Boxing, favourites have ridiculously high odds of winning.
In this strategy, you need a large bankroll in order to make any money from your bet, since you may only make 5 or 10 percent profit from each bet. This strategy may seem solid, but still comes with a lot of risk. Even though the odds of losing are small, it can be hard to win your money back when you lose. The margins can be so small, that favourite betting might not even be worth it. Remember that bookies try to minimize losses, and since so many people are betting on the favourite, the odds are often unrealistically low.
Betting Based on Winning Streaks Form and momentum are very important factors in determining odds. If a team has won seven games in a row, odds are strong that they will win the eighth. Still, every team has to lose eventually, so sometimes betting on the underdog can be the smarter bet, especially if the odds are overly inflated.
Arbitrage Betting The point of arbitrage betting or arbing sometimes called sure bets or miracle bets is to bet on both outcomes of an event, in order to guarantee a profit. The best way to do this is to find bookies offering opposite odds on an event. By betting on both sides, you can win regardless of the outcome. This sounds too good to be true, and it usually is.
You will have to be very fast when you find one. Hedge Betting Hedge betting is similar to arbitrage betting, since you are betting against yourself. This can help you in various situations. Usually it involves taking advantage of movement in odds, for bets you have already placed for example in outright betting. Another example is with multiples. If you have an acca with only one leg left and you have won the previous legs, you can place a lay bet or opposite bet for the last outcome in order to guarantee a profit.
Dutching Dutching has multiple meanings, and is sometimes used as an umbrella term for any set of bets that are guaranteed to give you a profit, if you win at least one of them. This includes hedge betting and arbitrage betting. The term is also specific to horse racing , where you bet on more than one horse in a race or tournament. As long as at least one of your horses wins or places, you will have a profit.
Dutching also involves adjusting your bet size, so you win the same amount, no matter the outcome. You can make use of our Dutching Calculator to get more insight on that strategy. Hutching Hutching is similar to Dutching. However, instead of balancing your bets, you lean towards the outcome you think is most likely. Thus, you will win more depending on which of your bets you win.
Betting software There are various kinds of betting software that you can use to become a better punter. There are software solutions that help you identify value bets and arbing opportunities, as well as solutions that help you see your overall betting record.
While there are plenty of paid options for the last part, a simple Excel file can be a good start to help you keep track of your betting record. Using statistical models Gathering statistics and calculating probabilities based on them is the task of any serious punter. While you could simply trust your gut, having actual math to back up your claim is the more profitable strategy in the long term.
Two of the most commonly used models are Normal Distribution and Poisson Distribution. Standard Deviation, Variance and Normal distribution One of the most important ways of predicting what an outcome will be is normal distribution.
Sports results, such as number of goals scored in a game i. By calculating standard deviation and variance, you can see how likely and by how much results differ from the mean. Poisson distribution Poisson distribution is another way of predicting the likelihood of a game score and outcome.
How good is a player compared to his peers? Many leagues have an official ranking system, though anyone can create their own. Chess uses the Elo Ratings System to create rankings based on the quality of opponents beat in official competition. The idea is that beating a stronger opponent will give you more points than beating a weaker opponent. A similar system was adopted by FIFA in to rank different countries in order to seed them for the World Cup.
You are free to create any system you want in order to rank the quality of teams or individual athletes, but Elo Ratings can be a great starting point. Following Tipsters Tipsters can be a great tool for finding smart bets. True tipsters are often successful punters who are so good that they are no longer accepted by bookies, or have their bets limited so they can only make a small amount of money. They usually sell their tips as a subscription service.
Of course, you should be wary of phony tipsters, who sell bogus tips. Matched betting Matched betting is a betting strategy, which punters use to take advantage of the various bookie promotions on offer. It is very unpopular with online betting sites. Many bookies offer free bets or deposit bonuses.
WHAT DOES NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE MEAN IN SPORTS BETTING
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Bet on leagues like this. Go Bay Stars! The same goes for prop bets. Prop bets represent a significant opportunity for bettors as sportsbooks are competing to offer as many prop bets as humanly possibly. This means sportsbooks have to create odds for these markets. The sheer number of prop bets that are offered means there are surely numbers that are not backed by a whole lot.
Study them. See when or if the lines move. Create a Model Using statistics to create a model is a great way to determine which side you should be on. Using a model that has basic statistics such as points, yards, field goal percentage, etc. Because sports betting is a market. And it is likely that many people in the market have a model similar to yours, just much more robust. So is using a model a bad idea? You just need to be honest in accepting the shortcomings and things it might not be capturing.
Injuries, playing time trends, shifts in coaching strategy, and more can be things that could affect the line but not be incorporated into your model. Excel is a great tool to get started with building models. For the more technical people, using programs such as Python and R can take it to another level.
Good example of a created statistic Using statistics in creative ways or even creating your own statistics could help you have an advantage on the market. The hard part is determining if these statistics have predictive value. Find an Angle An angle is something predictive that can be recognized by noticing patterns.
An example of an angle would be live betting against the Golden State Warriors in the 4th quarter when they had their record breaking season. The theory behind it is that Golden State would be blowing teams out so badly that they would rest their starters in the 4th quarter, while their opponent continues to play their best players. Another example would be using patterns to predict when NBA teams are likely to rest their superstars.
Use Promotions to Your Advantage Sportsbooks are battling for customers and will often times offer promotions via free bets, boosted odds , or rebates that give you an edge. When you add the fact that you are paying for the pick, and then susceptible to the line moving before you can place your bet makes it a tough sell. Do Not Chase Losses Betting systems like doubling your bet size every time you lose is a bad idea. The quickest way to lose your bankroll is to do things like this.
Create a betting process and stick to it. You should do this because it allows you to handle natural variance in betting. You should only be betting a small percentage of your bankroll on each bet. If you are using models or have a statistics based approach where you can calculate your edge, I would recommend following the half Kelly criterion model. It essentially sizes your bets appropriately given what you think your edge is.
All you need to do is enter the bet information, and the analysis is done for you. Using the bet tracker can give you insights into where you are doing well by different dimensions: league, team, bet type, props, etc. Accept and Understand Variance Variance is a natural part of sports betting. Relevant The more you can accept and understand variance, the better off you will be. It is helpful to track metrics like closing line value that are more predictive of success rather than just profit and loss.
Last week you went Have you figured everything out? Are you the best sports bettors in the world? Instead, you should look for reverse line movement. This is when the majority of bets are on one side of a market but the line moves in the opposite direction, indicating that sharp bettors have placed massive bets on the other side. To find reverse line movement, look for markets that have the majority of bets on one side of the market but the line is moving against it.
How to fade the public: Find data on the percent of bets on each side of a two-way market. Bet whichever side has the lower percentage. How to find reverse line movement: Find data on the percent of bets on each side of a two-way market. Look for instances where the line is moving in the opposite direction of where the majority of the bets are placed.
Bet on the opposite side of where the majority of the bets are placed. Such a strategy will eventually make it easier for you to find an edge. How to do it: Pick a sport and a single bet type. Spend time studying that market to notice good betting opportunities. While you can have a manual approach, this is sometimes just too time consuming to pay off.
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