Every interview I get I spent the last week in Barcelona with a group of entrepreneurs as part of an annual strategy session. Once per year, for the last eight years, this group has met somewhere exotic for a focused four-day deep dive into Essentially, they hit Does this mean we can't trust analysts? April 10, When you sell a stock, who buys it? When you buy a stock, who sold it? The simpler answer to each question is this - Somebody who thinks they know better than you. Everyday, billions of shares are traded between individuals who largely have the same information, but have formed different I'll see myself out, thank you April 2, I was recently a guest on Kitco News.
I may not be invited back. I understood the game. The host wanted me to wave the hyperbolic flag of panic. So that was our peak. And since we've been going downhill noticeably in terms of the standards of living of the average guy, even though the standard of living of the average guy has been buttressed by improvements in science and technology.
The greater depression We entered it in We went to the leading edge of this hurricane in '07, '08, '09, part of ' And the governments of the world, not just the U. S, have created trillions of new currency that have been like pouring oil on the waters. When are we going to exit the hurricane?
I thought we would've exited I've been wrong so far. I thought that we would've had high levels of retail inflation, noticeable levels It hasn't happened yet. All that money that's gone into the markets so far giving us a stock market bubble and a bond market hyper bubble, a super bubble. What's going to happen?
The government's idiotically trying to go to digital money. A total disaster from the point of view of the individual and the viewpoint of personal freedom. If they succeed with their digital money they'll be able to track everything you do, everything you own, every place you go. And they're trying to get rid of cash in the meantime. This all plays into my Greater Depression scenario, although I think the long-term future is going to be not only infinitely better than we can even imagine.
I think we're going to go through some really messy time over the next five or six years. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Craig: I hear you and I think a lot of folks listening to us probably feel that way too. You mentioned the long term though being better. And so I think question number three is perfectly timed for that and this is all part of the fun in getting questions from Sprott Money customers because you never know exactly what they're going to ask and here's something that's a little off the beaten path.
It says that years ago this person has seen you speak and you were very bullish on the future of nanotechnology and so the question is can you provide an update on the state of nanotech and do you have any nanotech-related investment ideas? Doug: I don't have any nanotech-related investment ideas but let me say this. I'm going to say the same thing now that I said when I first wrote about nanotech in in my book "Crisis Investing for the Rest of the '90s".
Nanotech is one of those things that is going to change not just investment markets but the entire nature of life itself radically, un-recognizably. It's the biggest thing that's ever happened in human history. That's not only nanotech.
There are a number of technologies that are advancing at the rate of Moore's law. The question about a long-term historical point of view you could say that civilization itself has been advancing at the rate of Moore's law ever since homo sapiens came onto the Earth , or so years ago, and the rate of change has been increasing.
So when we look at computer technology, artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, what's happening is that the speed of development of these things is accelerating radically. It's like a used stadium that at the bottom of the stadium there might be a drop of water, and at first that drop of water doubles every week.
It's not noticeable. Then after a while it starts doubling after every day, then it doubles again after every hour and it still doesn't make any difference because it's only one, two, four, eight drops of water, but at some point the curve This is something that Ray Kurzweil has written about. He calls it the singularity. And it seems with the way things have been accelerating, not just since Moore's law was crystallized in the s, but going back since the dawn of mankind itself that within 20 years that stadium that I referred to, it's going to go from just a sheen of water that you'll see on the field to doubling, doubling and doubling again very, very quickly and it goes from half full to overfilling the stadium in a matter of seconds, and that's actually where we are right now in all of those areas not just nanotech.
So it's a big picture but this is why I'm so optimistic for the long term future. All you have to do quite frankly is survive another 20 years and magic could happen, including living for as long as you'd like. So that's a real brief nutshell answer to that cosmic question. Craig: Very interesting stuff, Doug. All right, let's turn back to the precious metals and to the precious metal miners for a second.
The fourth question has to do with the I guess we call it a gold rush down in western Australia in the Pilbara region. This person wanted to know what you think of those theories behind the Pilbara gold rush and are there any companies based down there that you might recommend. That's basically his deal. I don't know how to assess it.
Maybe it's the next Witwatersrand or maybe it's just a couple of bed nuggets that have been found. I don't know. I don't know if anybody knows for sure. What I do know is this. Is that Noval has a market cap of over a billion dollars. I got involved in it about a year ago in a private placement I did at I don't know what it was, was a dollar. After it quadrupled I sold it and the warrants.
You know, I don't like wildcat plays that have market caps of over a billion dollars in a bad market. So what's going to happen? If they do find the next Witwatersrand maybe that stock goes from 1 billion to 5 billion. Well, that's a nice hit. But there's lots of other ways to play this that are lower risk and higher potential at this point so that's my answer. I don't know and right now I don't care.
Craig: Fair enough. All right, let's move on. I got a couple of questions in a row that have to do with the gold market. GATA and other organizations have provided years of coverage detailing government involvement in gold price suppression.
You've said in the past that you don't believe in gold price suppression, this person just was wondering why you think that. They're sincere folks. They believe in gold. I'm all for them. They're very nice. But they really wear tinfoil hats when they start talking about this stuff. Of course governments want a low gold price because that would indicate that there's no inflation, that there's nothing to worry about economically or financially, but are they suppressing the price of gold?
They wanted a lower gold price but they're not doing anything about it. Is that successful gold price suppression? How can they do it now when there's twice as much gold in the world than this very week and so forth? It's impossible. Entirely apart from that, the fact of the matter is that the people that run these governments really believe their own propaganda.
They think that gold is basically just a dead asset. It's worthless. It's irrelevant. It's ancient history. They're not trying to suppress it. They don't care. In addition to the fact that they can't suppress it for the reasons that I just gave you. In addition to that, why would they wanna suppress it if they could?
Because the Russians and the Chinese have been buying huge amounts of gold for years. Should the U. S be suppressing the price of gold so that the Russians and Chinese get a bargain in buying it? The whole thing about gold price suppression is actually quite ridiculous and quite laughable. Craig: Tell you what, I think that's a good segue to question six actually, Doug, as kind of the followup in a sense in that this person phrased it as the Fulfulla [SP] blog contends this, but I think a lot of other websites, my website, others websites contend that the entire price model is flawed.
The way that it's not really physical that's exchanged to determine the price, it's all these derivatives and forwards and futures and everything else, and if that price model is flawed, which I'd let you decide whether it is or not, that gold mining itself where they're selling their product at that price is kind of a failed business model.
Anyway, with that as a question what do you think? Doug: Well, I only discovered the existence of the Fulfulla blog earlier today. Look everybody's got an opinion. Most opinions are worth nothing, probably including my own. And this kind of relates back to that question about GATA and gold price suppression. Look, the futures markets are for price discovery, and I wouldn't worry about a bald head guy with a white [inaudible ] stroking trying to manipulate all the world's markets.
Nobody can do it, so forget about that stuff. I don't buy it. But I would like to answer the second part of the question about the gold mining industry. I've been saying for years that the gold mining industry itself is a 19th century choo choo train business in an era when, you know, all the smart young guys are playing with things like we were talking about before, artificial intelligence nanotech, robotics, space exploration.
And here the mining industry is still digging around in the dirt with big yellow trucks. It's the worst industry in the world, assuming you find the gold deposits [inaudible ] economic which is hard to do for lots of reasons, your troubles only really start then.
You've got a make a billion-dollar investment upfront and you're not going to even start earning your way out of it for maybe 5 or 10 years, and then when you do that's when the NGOs and the greenies and the natives and the governments all start attacking you. It's a horrible industry. So, saying that, it's an essential industry.
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