I have no doubt that the Bulldogs will be in the premiership mix come the business end of the season, but I have my concerns about how well they will start the year. The premiership hangover is a real thing — especially for a young side — and there is every chance that the Bulldogs will be slow out of the gates. Collingwood were the biggest underperformers in the AFL last season and the pressure really is on Nathan Buckley to turn them around in They are a team that lacks an on-field identity and that will need to change if they are any chance of returning to finals football.
The Magpies did win three of their six games as home underdogs last season for a clear profit and they are capable of a stellar performance on their day. This will be closer than the current market suggests and I am keen to back the Magpies with a start of St Kilda only missed out on the finals by percentage last season and they only need to improve slightly to make the jump into the top eight this season. If they are to make that leap they will need to win games like this one and they go into this clash as narrow favourites.
St Kilda did win all three of their games as home favourites last season, while they have won their past 14 games against the Demons. There is no doubt that Melbourne are a side on the rise and they have added some serious talent to their side in the form of Jordan Lewis, Michael Hibberd and Jake Melksham.
Inconsistency was an issue for the Demons and they will be hopeful that these mature recruits will make them a more reliable week-to-week proposition. Melbourne were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season, but the fact that their record against St Kilda is so poor is a serious concern. This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right, but it is still set to be a fascinating affair. Sydney were only narrowly denied another premiership by the Western Bulldogs last season and they are sure to be in contention once again.
The Swans are the consistent force of the AFL and they look a lock to finish in the top four once again. Sydney won 10 of their 14 games as home favourites last season and more impressively they were against the line in this scenario. Their percentage was the best of the teams that missed out on the AFL Finals and they are still capable of playing some excellent football on their day. This is a big season for Ken Hinkley and he is sure to have his side ready to fire early.
The Power actually won two of their four games as away underdogs last season, but they were no match for Sydney and they have not beaten the Swans since Sydney really should be able to get their season off to a winning start, but their is no value at their current price and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of.
Off-field problems continue to distract the Suns and there has been plenty of drama surrounding GaryAblett during the pre-season, but it should not be forgotten that the Suns have one of the most talented lists in the competition. Anything is possible for the Suns this season — they could just as easily compete for the wooden spoon as a spot in the top eight — but they really should be able to make a winning start to the season. The Suns did not start many games as favourites last season, but when they did they generally got the job done and they beat the line in four of their six games as home favourites.
Chris Fagan has taken over at the Brisbane Lions and is a very shrewd appointment, but it is tough to see him turning this list around in a season. The Lions were lucky not to win the wooden spoon last year and they played uninspiring football right across the season. Brisbane won just one of their 11 games as away underdogs and they were a very poor against the line. The Suns should really make a winning start to their season and the line of There is no doubt that Essendon will be a much better football team in , but expectations may have been hyped somewhat after their promising pre-season.
Taking a year out of your career is a setback for any player, but when there are 12 of these players on the same list it is sure to have even more of an impact. In saying that, there is a fair bit to like about Essendon heading into this clash against Hawthorn. As I said earlier their pre-season has been excellent and even with all their issues last season they still managed to be a profitable betting side. The Bombers covered the line in ten of their 16 games in Melbourne last season and there is no doubt that they will head into this clash full of energy.
Hawthorn have gone through plenty of upheaval during the off-season and they will be one of the most interesting teams to follow in Losing that much experience is tough for any side and there could be somewhat of a leadership vacuum at the club, which places plenty of pressure on the returning Jarryd Roughead. The Hawks were one of the worst betting teams in the entire AFL last season and they covered the line in just five of their 20 games as favourites.
No club has lost more experience during the off-season than North Melbourne and their senior list contains an astonishing 15 players that are yet to make their AFL debuts. A number of players will be thrown into the deep end this season and it really would not surprise if North Melbourne were in wooden spoon calculations at some stage this season.
North Melbourne lost all eight of their games as underdogs last season and their record against the line when getting a start was a very poor West Coast fell away at the tail end of , but it should not be forgotten that they were legitimate premiership contenders for the majority of the season.
There is no doubt that West Coast are a much better team in front of their home fans and their betting statistics show that fact — they won four of their six games as away favourites and they were a poor against the line in this scenario. The real value in this betting looks to be in the Total Points market. The Greater Western Sydney Giants only narrowly missed out on a maiden premiership in and they are clear favourite to claim the flag this season.
There is little doubt that this Greater Western Sydney side should improve with that finals experience under their belts and they now have one of the most experienced lists in the entire AFL. It is no surprise that the Giants will go into this clash as clear favourites and they were tough to beat in this scenario last season — they won seven of their eight games as away favourites, but were only against the line in this scenario.
Adelaide played some blistering football at times in and for a large part of the season they were considered one of the leading premiership contenders. They fell away slightly at the very end of the season, but they are still a side with plenty of talent. Whether they are able to maintain their exciting, attacking style from last season is the question and the Crows are a side that have a high ceiling as well as a low floor. The Crows were able to turn the Adelaide Oval into a fortress in and they won all three of their games as home underdogs for a clear profit.
The one betting market that does stand out in this clash is the Total Points betting market. It is fair to say that the Crows and the Giants are two of the most entertaining teams in the entire competition and backing the Over in games involving either side last season was a highly profitable play. The total point line has been set at Patrick Dangerfield took his game to another level with Geelong last season and he was obviously the key-man for this side that only narrowly missed out on a Grand Final appearance.
A reliance on Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is the obvious issue for the Cats and there are some issues with their forward line, but this is still a side that will be in the mix come September. Winning away from home was somewhat of an issue for Geelong last season and they won only six of their ten games as away favourites for a clear loss, while they were against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle plummeted down the ladder in , but it really would not surprise if they were the big improvers in It should not be forgotten that Fremantle finished in the top four in and they will be a completely different side if Nathan Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands are able to stay fit.
Whether they are capable to return to finals football is a different question, but there is no doubt that they will win more than four games. The Dockers only won two of their eight games as home underdogs last season, but they were a credible against the line in this scenario. It really would not surprise if Fremantle make a strong start to the season and I am keen to back them to cover the line with a start of The best AFL odds on the opening game of the season can be found at Ladbrokes.
The opening round of the season will be played over Easter Weekend and that means we get the always intriguing Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong in the first week of the season. Richmond fans start every season full of confidence that this can finally be the year that their side can develop into a genuine top four outfit, while Carlton were truly awful last season and if they can avoid the wooden spoon will be considered an improvement. The Tigers have a reputation as being an unreliable football team and that theory is confirmed by their betting data in the past 12 months — they have been a losing betting proposition as favourites and they are a horrible against the line as favourites at the MCG.
It should come as no surprise that Carlton were a shocking betting team last season and they won just two of their 17 games as underdogs last season, while they are against the line as underdogs. Melbourne showed promising signs at the start of before they regressed badly in the second half of the season, but they showed some promising signs during the NAB Challenge. The Giants will start this game as favourites and if they are serious about playing finals football they really need to be winning games like this one.
The Demons were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season in head to head betting and their NAB Challenge form suggests to me that they will make a promising start to the season. The club has been gutted by the WADA suspensions of the majority of their best players and it is tough to see them winning more than a handful of games this season. The Gold Coast Suns were expected to push for a finals berth last season, but without Gary Ablett they were extremely poor and expectations have been fairly measured in The Suns have a very poor record against the line as favourites, while the Bombers were against the line as underdogs this season.
Recommended Bet: No Bet Saturday 26 March, pm, Etihad Stadium North Melbourne - Adelaide 97 This is one of the most interesting games of the round as both these sides are considered legitimate chances to play finals football this season.
North Melbourne were only a game away from the Grand Final again last season, but it is fair to say that they overachieved and they were not particularly impressive for the majority of the season. Adelaide showed a tremendous amount of character to rally following the tragic murder of their coach Phil Walsh and they played a quality brand of football to qualify for the finals, but many experts believe that they will struggle to replicate that in These markets are affected by things like lead-up form across the season, their record at the venue, whether they are playing at home or away and the AFL team selections for the match.
The line is the winning spread of points a team must either win or lose by for that bet to pay out. AFL Season Pricing Ladbrokes were the first online sports bookmaker in Australia to offer exclusive AFL season pricing with head-to-head betting markets available for all 23 rounds of the home-and-away season. These markets give supporters an excellent opportunity to back their favourite AFL team across the full season.
AFL season pricing is updated each round so checking back on a weekly basis is key. We have these markets available By Rounds or By Team to make it even easier to follow your club. The markets are affected by the round-by-round AFL results and usually the teams sitting the highest on the AFL ladder are at the shortest price to win the competition. AFL Season Wins Betting Betting on AFL Season wins is open even before the start of the annual Premiership and lists prices club-by-club to record either under or over a certain number of wins across the overall 23 week regular season leading up to the finals series.
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What once was thought of as a runaway season for Melbourne has now gotten very tight. The Lions are without captain Dayne Zorko hamstring here, but one would still think they can keep this close. Fremantle Dockers That presents a great opportunity for Freemantle to keep the pace atop the ladder, but they also have a tough visit to Carlton.
This AFL betting line is kind of perplexing because this looks like an easy double-digit Dockers win. Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats Geelong is and just a game off the pace in the ladder, while Richmond is right in the hunt at The same price can be offered if the two clubs are deemed an equal chance of winning, but usually there is a favourite at shorter AFL odds. These markets are affected by things like lead-up form across the season, their record at the venue, whether they are playing at home or away and the AFL team selections for the match.
The line is the winning spread of points a team must either win or lose by for that bet to pay out. AFL Season Pricing Ladbrokes were the first online sports bookmaker in Australia to offer exclusive AFL season pricing with head-to-head betting markets available for all 23 rounds of the home-and-away season.
These markets give supporters an excellent opportunity to back their favourite AFL team across the full season. AFL season pricing is updated each round so checking back on a weekly basis is key. We have these markets available By Rounds or By Team to make it even easier to follow your club. The markets are affected by the round-by-round AFL results and usually the teams sitting the highest on the AFL ladder are at the shortest price to win the competition.
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The Dees will kick off their premiership defence with a clash against the Bulldogs, who they obliterated in the Grand Final last season, winning by a whopping 74 points in a brilliant display. On paper, the Dees look to have only gotten better in the off-season as well. They avoided losing any key pieces to their premiership success while gaining the services of St Kilda midfielder Luke Dunstan as well as a handy top 20 draft pick in Jacod Van Rooyen.
After playing just 20 games over two seasons with Melbourne so far, a healthy Adam Tomlinson heading into will also be a big boost to the Dees depth. The Doggies will no doubt still be reeling from that performance in the Grand Final. After being the better side in the first half, they seemed to give up after half time, allowing the Dees to pile on 16 goals to just three.
That presents a great opportunity for Freemantle to keep the pace atop the ladder, but they also have a tough visit to Carlton. This AFL betting line is kind of perplexing because this looks like an easy double-digit Dockers win. Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats Geelong is and just a game off the pace in the ladder, while Richmond is right in the hunt at The Tigers are one of four teams slotted at heading into round 15, so they really need a win to separate themselves.
Both clubs are coming off big wins, the Cats beating up on last-place West Coast by 18 and Richmond getting a somewhat shocking point win over Carton. Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans
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